Azelma wrote:
So, a bro of mine who is at MIT had this to say, and I'm wondering what you smart bro's (Joklem) would say in response
"Pretentious" isn't the same as "smart". As with so many things, understanding is more significant than regurgitation of facts and terminology out of context.
The "low levels of radiation" were measured 100 miles off the coast by an American carrier. That means that the radiation levels are much greater closer-in. 15 patients were received in the hospitals with radiation poisoning, probably workers in the plant. Still, it's likely that radiation levels near the plant - outside the containment housing - are significantly in excess of what is healthy.
Japan is a small enough place that 100 miles is within the radius between the reactors and Tokyo itself. And there's the longer-term problem that radiation uptake is cumulative. The very fact that the plant managers are simply pumping seawater into the reactors to cool them show just how desperate they are for options.
There have been reactor incidents in the past in Japan, and with the Japanese national character what it is, they have always sought to play down the extent of the problem. There is every reason to believe they are doing the same now - the problem is likely far worse than is generally known. It's clear that the three reactors have already gone into meltdown. The question is, whether what is being detected is an actual containment breach or merely radioactive steam and seawater.
It only became clear after a few weeks just how serious a problem the Chernobyl disaster was, because the Soviets tried to cover it up, which, then as now, was a futile and unsustainable gesture. Many people (hundreds of thousands) who did not die instantly were "affected" and may well still be.
Short of a massive release of core material as happened at Chernobyl (which will not occur due to the containment dome that the Japanese reactors have), there obviously has been a significant release of radioactive material. Even after the reactor is stabilized, that mess will have to be cleaned up. Since they are using raw seawater to try to cool the reactor, and it is obvious that radioactive materials are being emitted from the plant, the surrounding area will become contaminated. Even low-level contamination is dangerous for long-term exposure, as in living within a few miles of it for the entire lifespan of tens of millions of people.
Radiation cleanup, like earthquake proofing, is one of those public-works tasks in which any feat, however great, can be accomplished - for the right price. The Japanese will probably wind up doing what they did after the atom bombs, removing the entire mass of the reactor and several meters of topsoil and contaminated buildings, then re-establishing the terrain with landfill and new buildings at a cost of many hundreds of billions of dollars.
It's important to understand what this means. We're talking about moving huge, unfathomable amounts of earth and building materials, many millions of tons of dirt, then importing millions of tons more of steel, concrete, and other materials. It's a massive undertaking, like rebuilding the Pyramids many times over. It's low-tech, but the fuel and labor costs and sheer scale are mind-numbing.
Obviously, all that will have to be paid for with loans. From whom? China and the US. The long-term legacy of this incident will be how it affects Japan's relationship with China and the US - they will have a far weaker hand to play in international relations with us holding loans against them.
Ironically, this incident may prove very good for the environment, because it will likely put a nail between the eyes of the whaling profession - Japan will no longer be in a position to subsidize it nor to make diplomatic entreaties on the behalf of whalers.
Another long-term impact this incident will have is to significantly raise interest rates, with Japan needing to hire so much money. This will cause the yen to go down in value. The real question, then, is whether this event will cause the dollar or the yuan to gain more value relative to other currencies. If the dollar wins more, that's bad, because it will perpetuate our unsustainable economic situation and make the inevitable adjustment more severe. If the yuan wins more, which is unlikely, that is a good thing, because it will make the American economy more competitive and increase the probability that our long-term economic correction will be a soft one and not end in civil strife.
